Phase 6 · Formal Definitions

How SI separates signal, interpretation and proof.

These definitions protect the line between what was observed, what was interpreted, what was modelled and what was validated. They make uncertainty visible instead of allowing confident language to outrun the evidence.

The question this collection helps answer: How strong is the conclusion, and what can it not prove?
39. Signal 40. Noise 41. Evidence 42. Interpretation 43. Materiality 44. Evidence Confidence 45. Observed 46. Inferred 47. Modelled 48. Validated 49. Unknown 50. Early-Warning Signal 51. Contribution 52. Attribution
The evidence may be real. The conclusion can still be wrong.
Terms in this collection
How to read each definition: plain language, the canonical statement, where it fits, what it includes and excludes, the evidence behind it, and why governance cares.

39. Signal

Evidence construct · SI-DEF-039

It is something that may matter and deserves interpretation.

A Signal is an observed pattern, event or change that may contain decision-relevant information about risk, opportunity, behaviour or market movement.

Where it fits: Emerges from observation and must be separated from noise through interpretation and evidence confidence.

Includes

Repeated or material changes in search, technical conditions, reviews, demand, representation, competitors or journeys.

Not

Not automatically a cause, conclusion or action priority.

Evidence

Reported with source, period, scope, recurrence, magnitude, context and confidence.

Why it matters

May trigger monitoring, validation, materiality assessment or escalation.

A potentially meaningful change.

40. Noise

Evidence construct · SI-DEF-040

It looks like movement but may not matter.

Noise is variation, data or activity that obscures, imitates or lacks sufficient connection to a decision-relevant condition.

Where it fits: The competing condition Search Intelligence must distinguish from signal.

Includes

Random volatility, measurement error, duplication, irrelevant scope, short-lived anomalies and non-material variation.

Not

Not merely an inconvenient result; an apparent anomaly may later prove to be a signal.

Evidence

Documenting volatility, uncertainty, data quality and reasons for exclusion or continued monitoring.

Why it matters

Correctly identifying noise prevents wasted action and weak governance decisions.

Movement without sufficient decision relevance.

41. Evidence

Evidence construct · SI-DEF-041

It is the factual basis for what SI says and recommends.

Evidence is verifiable information used to support, challenge or limit a factual claim, interpretation, risk assessment or decision.

Where it fits: Captured through observation, interpreted by Human Intelligence and governed through the Evidence Trail.

Includes

Data, captures, logs, research, customer statements, technical outputs, reports, records and validated observations.

Not

Not the same as interpretation, certainty or proof of causation.

Evidence

Every material item retains source, date, scope, method, context, limitations and confidence.

Why it matters

Gives decisions an auditable trust path.

The factual basis for the conclusion.

42. Interpretation

Intelligence construct · SI-DEF-042

It connects facts to possible meaning and consequence.

Interpretation is the reasoned explanation of what evidence may mean within its commercial, technical, customer and organisational context.

Where it fits: The central Human Intelligence activity between observation and governance.

Includes

Contextual analysis, comparison, causal hypotheses, materiality, competing explanations and decision implications.

Not

Not fact; must not be presented without its evidence basis and uncertainty.

Evidence

Reported separately from observed facts and labelled with confidence and limitations.

Why it matters

Enables action while preserving evidence discipline and challenge.

What the evidence reasonably means.

43. Materiality

Governance/evidence construct · SI-DEF-043

It determines whether something matters enough to require attention or action.

Materiality is the assessed significance of a search-driven condition based on its plausible consequence, scale, urgency, persistence, exposure and decision relevance.

Where it fits: Converts interpreted evidence into governance priority.

Includes

Commercial value, customer harm, trust, risk, technical severity, category position, recurrence, reversibility and strategic relevance.

Not

Not determined by metric size alone; may differ by sector, product, journey or risk appetite.

Evidence

Reported through defined criteria, assumptions, evidence confidence and rationale.

Why it matters

Supports prioritisation, escalation and proportionate response.

How important is this to the organisation?

44. Evidence Confidence

Measurement construct · SI-DEF-044

It shows how sure SI can be that the evidence supports the claim.

Evidence Confidence is the assessed strength, reliability, relevance and repeatability of the evidence supporting a conclusion.

Where it fits: Qualifies every material observation, inference, model and validation.

Includes

Source quality, recency, consistency, triangulation, relevance, repeatability and known limitations.

Not

Not Customer Decision Confidence; does not state how confident the customer felt.

Evidence

Reported as a defined level with rationale, not as an unexplained score.

Why it matters

Determines how strongly a decision may rely on the evidence and whether further validation is required.

How strong is the evidence behind this conclusion?

45. Observed

Evidence-status label · SI-DEF-045

We directly saw or recorded it.

Observed is the status assigned when a fact or condition was directly captured or recorded within the stated method and scope.

Where it fits: The strongest direct evidence-status category but still requires context and limitations.

Includes

Result presence, captured AI output, log event, technical error, transaction, stated response or direct interaction evidence.

Not

Does not mean causal, complete or representative beyond the capture conditions.

Evidence

Reports must state what was observed, where, when and how.

Why it matters

Observed facts form the base of the Evidence Trail.

Directly captured.

46. Inferred

Evidence-status label · SI-DEF-046

The evidence suggests it, but we did not directly observe the full event.

Inferred is the status assigned when a conclusion is reasonably drawn from observed evidence but was not directly captured or validated.

Where it fits: Sits between observation and modelling and requires explicit reasoning.

Includes

Likely encounters, confidence movement, causal pathways and customer transitions supported by patterns or triangulation.

Not

Must not be presented as observed fact.

Evidence

Reports show the supporting evidence, alternative explanations and confidence level.

Why it matters

Enables useful interpretation while protecting credibility.

Reasonably suggested by the evidence.

47. Modelled

Evidence-status label · SI-DEF-047

It is an estimate produced by a defined model.

Modelled is the status assigned when a conclusion, estimate or scenario is generated through an explicit analytical model using stated assumptions and inputs.

Where it fits: Uses evidence and assumptions to support planning or prioritisation.

Includes

Demand opportunity, avoided loss, probability, scenario, impact range and forecast.

Not

Not observed fact or guaranteed outcome.

Evidence

Reports disclose model logic, inputs, assumptions, ranges, sensitivity and limitations.

Why it matters

Supports decisions where direct measurement is incomplete but must not create false certainty.

Estimated through a stated model.

48. Validated

Evidence-status label · SI-DEF-048

The conclusion has been checked and supported by more than one reliable basis.

Validated is the status assigned when an observation, inference or model has been independently corroborated through additional reliable evidence, direct customer confirmation or repeatable testing.

Where it fits: Strengthens the evidential status of a prior conclusion.

Includes

Triangulated data, repeated tests, customer research, operational confirmation and outcome evidence.

Not

Does not remove all uncertainty or prove universal causation.

Evidence

Reports state the validation method and remaining limitations.

Why it matters

Validated findings can support stronger governance action and control design.

Independently corroborated.

49. Unknown

Evidence-status label · SI-DEF-049

We do not currently know.

Unknown is the status assigned when available evidence is insufficient to establish a defensible conclusion.

Where it fits: A legitimate evidence status that may trigger further observation or accepted uncertainty.

Includes

Unmeasured effects, missing data, inaccessible journeys, unresolved causal questions and unverified claims.

Not

Must not be converted into zero, no risk or assumed safety.

Evidence

Reports state what is unknown, why and what evidence would reduce uncertainty.

Why it matters

Naming unknowns prevents false confidence and supports responsible risk decisions.

Insufficient evidence to conclude.

50. Early-Warning Signal

Evidence/intelligence construct · SI-DEF-050

It is evidence that something important may be developing before the final result appears.

An Early-Warning Signal is a credible, decision-relevant indication of emerging change or exposure identified before the full commercial consequence becomes visible in conventional outcome reporting.

Where it fits: A qualified signal that enters validation, materiality and governance before lagging outcomes.

Includes

Competitor movement, technical deterioration, representation change, demand shift, review pattern and category disruption.

Not

Not a prediction or certainty that harm or opportunity will occur.

Evidence

Reported with evidence confidence, lead time, plausible consequence and monitoring or response recommendation.

Why it matters

Enables earlier mitigation, protection or opportunity capture.

A material signal detected before the outcome.

51. Contribution

Measurement construct · SI-DEF-051

It helped shape the result.

Contribution is the supported role that an exposure, encounter, Search Moment, action or channel played in influencing an outcome without claiming exclusive causation.

Where it fits: Connects intermediate decision influence to Business Outcomes under uncertainty.

Includes

Multi-touch influence, trust support, validation, demand creation, journey progression and risk reduction.

Not

Not attribution; does not claim that one factor caused the outcome alone.

Evidence

Reported with evidence basis, confidence, alternative contributors and limits.

Why it matters

Supports value interpretation without overstating causation.

A supported role in the outcome.

52. Attribution

Measurement construct · SI-DEF-052

It decides what receives credit for the result.

Attribution is the assignment of causal credit or responsibility for an outcome to one or more contributing exposures, encounters, actions or channels according to a stated method.

Where it fits: A stronger causal claim than contribution; requires a clearly defined methodology.

Includes

Single-touch, multi-touch, experimental, econometric or validated customer evidence approaches.

Not

Not automatically established by a conversion path, last click or correlation.

Evidence

Reports disclose the attribution method, assumptions, data limitations and uncertainty.

Why it matters

Governance should use attribution cautiously for investment and accountability decisions.

Causal credit assigned by a stated method.
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